O ptáka míň

Hned jsem se zapojil do vědecké disputace o tom, že není žádná pravda, že v místě, kde se právě stala nehoda, se hned tak nestane další. Dvě za sebou jsou prý ještě méně pravděpodobné než jedna, takže je hned bezpečnější být v letadle zrovna tam. Kecy. Pravděpodobnost se na tohle neptá, to riziko je pořád stejné. Dalo mi práci přesvědčit veškerou audienci, kdo je tu nejchytřejší (že jako já) a ať mě neutěšují, že mám být v pohodě, protože to já budu, ale ne na základě pseudovědeckých blábolů.

A pak najednou někdo řekl: "A to letadlo se srazilo s ptákem? Tak teď je tam ale o ptáka míň. To tu pravděpodobnost přece snižuje!" A mně tak sklaplo, až to cvaklo. To je pravda. Prohrál jsem.

A teď už musím jít. Jdu vrátit universitní diplom.

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One Bird Down

I watched some videos of landing and takeoff from Lukla airport. Impressive. The runway is short, there is rock walls around and an abyss. Most dangerous civil airport in the world, they say. We’ll check it out. There was a plane crash lately on a flight from Kathmandu to here. But it was just few minutes after takeoff and the plane hit a bird or a flock of birds, perhaps. So which place is most dangerous now?

About that: I got involved in a scientific dispute about probability of accidents. It is not true that on the spot a crash happened the probability of another one is reduced, based on some primitive calculation that two consecutive mishaps are even less probable than one. Boarding a plane in place and time of a recent accident is safer? Crap. It took me time to convince the audience who is most educated in mathematics here (meaning me) and that there is no need to keep me cool about the flight. I will be fine, anyway, but not using scientifically incorrect explanations.

And then someone said: "The accident was a bird encounter, that right? So there is one bird down there. And it should lower the likelihood of another crash, should it not?" And my jawbone fell with a click. That was correct. I was defeated.

Got to go now. I am returning my university diploma.